Dark stylish compass with needle pointing to the year number 2026
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Weekly investor research

EM central banks ease as DM diverges: ECB on hold, BoJ tightens

ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.
Fed rate cuts & EM Equities
Weekly investor research

Fed cuts as attention shifts to EM central banks

Fed cut 25bp plus $40bn/month T-bill buys. BOE set to cut, BOJ to hike; EM MPCs in focus. $52bn tech investment in India; IMF okays $1.2bn for Pakistan. Chile elects Kast; Vietnam FDI 5y high; ratings mixed (Oman up, Hungary down).

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Weekly investor research

EV buyers may be in DM, but its supply chain assets are in EM

The strong performance of equity markets last week was related to the market interpretation of the main central bank decisions, seeing ‘not hawkish’ as ‘dovish’, and confusion over the actions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Chinese stocks outperformed on...
Local currencies from around the world
The Emerging View

The case for local currency bonds “Si, se puede!”

Believe it or not, Emerging Markets (EM) local currency bonds have been outperforming global fixed income asset classes for the past 18-months. Most of the outperformance has been based on an early and more appropriate hiking cycle from EM central...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - July 2023

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions with his views about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
India takes centre stage
The Emerging View

India takes centre stage

India has a compelling investment case. Over the last ten years, the MSCI India index has delivered over 135% returns in USD. Over the last three to five years, the same index has delivered 69% and 56% returns respectively, outperforming the MSCI...
Shaking hands
Weekly investor research

Switching the focus: diverging policy, with one eye on diplomacy

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) pauses but remains hawkish, and the European Central Bank (ECB) hikes 0.25% and signals more hikes. Conversely in Asia, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) remains dovish despite elevated core consumer price index (CPI) inflation, and...
Economy and growth jigsaw on Indian flag
Video

India takes centre stage

Rashi Talwar Bhatia, Portfolio Manager for India Equity, and Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Global Head of Research discuss the opportunities present in the India Equity universe and their outlook for the second half of 2023 and beyond. 
Irish dancing
Weekly investor research

Dancing to the Fed’s rate hike ‘skip’

The benign macroeconomic backdrop and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) inclination to ‘skip’ this month’s rate hike are music to investors’ ears. Flows into credit products and Emerging Markets (EM) bond issuance have benefitted from improved sentiment.
Turkish flag flying in the sky
Weekly investor research

A welcome lull in policy uncertainty

In Türkiye, President Erdogan throws an olive branch to the market by appointing an old friend. OPEC+ oil production cuts cause barely a ripple on Brent crude prices, as global inflationary pressures show signs of abating. In the United States (US)...