Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.
Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where we discussed the outlook and opportunities for emerging markets hard currency sovereign debt in 2026.
Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.
Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.
Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where we discussed the outlook and opportunities for emerging markets hard currency sovereign debt in 2026.
Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.
EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.
Fed cut 25bp plus $40bn/month T-bill buys. BOE set to cut, BOJ to hike; EM MPCs in focus. $52bn tech investment in India; IMF okays $1.2bn for Pakistan. Chile elects Kast; Vietnam FDI 5y high; ratings mixed (Oman up, Hungary down).
ChatGPT said: Markets navigated rising political and geopolitical noise as Brazilian election tensions grew, the US moved toward a well-telegraphed December rate cut with a data-dependent path in 2026, and commodities threatened to disrupt disinflation.
EM local bonds stayed strong despite choppy markets, as UK/German policy stayed on a consolidation/investment path. India and South Korea surprised with strong growth, while EM sovereigns like Zambia and Qatar saw rating support.
Risk-off sentiment reversed as US liquidity expanded and bond yields recovered. NVIDIA earnings bolstered AI sector. Ukraine, South Korea, Malaysia, and Brazil saw trade progress; Mexico's economy contracted but recovery expected.
EM assets extended their outperformance as supportive macro conditions held firm, with Ghana and Colombia showing policy progress and S&P issuing mixed rating actions across Nigeria, South Africa and Senegal.
China issued tight 3- and 5-year bonds. Multiple nations accessed Eurobond markets; Congo returned after 18 years. US shutdown neared resolution; job cuts surged to 153k. Democrats won electorally. European carmakers rebounded. Ghana's inflation hit 8.0%
EM equities up a 10th month. US-China truce delays rare earth curbs; US inks deals with Thailand, Cambodia & Malaysia; tariffs remain. Fed cuts 25bp with split. India announces market/strategic metals reforms. Korea lifted by Nvidia’s 260k GPU sale.
Attending the IMF World Economic Outlook Forum provided reassurance that the global macro environment favours risk assets, especially EM/FM. Debasement fears are overblown. AI capex and Fed support keep spirits high.
Watch the replay now to see why we believe Frontier Markets could merit a strategic allocation across both Fixed Income and Equities in today’s global backdrop.