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Cliffhanger in Argentina

Weekly investor research

30 June 2014

The stand-off in Argentina intensified last week when funds intended for today’s coupon payment on the 2033 Discount bonds were returned to the government. Despite continuing tensions on the ground, the situation in Ukraine improves further as President Poroshenko launches his constitutional reform proposal. More positive data out of Mexico and Vietnam, while China takes another step forward towards interest rate liberalisation. In Eastern Europe, Poland overcame a mini political crisis while Hungary took another step towards easing conditions for indebted households. In the US, Q1 growth was revised down further and so far the data points to only a tepid bounce-back in Q2. We propose an explanation for low trend growth amidst fairly conventional intra-year cyclical dynamics.

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