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Where are the main macroeconomic risks?

The Emerging View

07 April 2017

We construct macroeconomic risk indicators for Emerging Markets (EM) countries and the US (so-called Icarus Indices). We find that the mild easing stance adopted by most EM central banks is consistent with the state of EM business cycles, but that Fed policy is too easy given the US business cycle. This implies that allocations out of US markets and into EM are not merely justified in terms of relative valuations, but also by relative risk measures.

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