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A US recession draws nearer

Weekly investor research

18 January 2016

Why are Chinese stock markets and CNH under so much pressure when China’s fundamentals are so healthy? We suggest global factors are to blame along with impediments to trading that distort valuations materially. Iran joins the family of nations. Poland is downgraded for political rather than economic reasons. Russia delivers a fiscal response to a narrowing trade surplus. Venezuela’s opposition blinks. Petrobras cuts its capex program. Argentina prepares for negotiations with holdout investors. In the global backdrop section we discuss the implications of the US hurtling towards recession.

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