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Update on Venezuela and other EM events

Weekly investor research

20 November 2017

And the winner is…well, investors it would seem when it comes to Venezuela. Bond holders have so far been paid their dues, albeit late, and owners of default protection can also look forward to a payday. If Venezuela continues to pay, the biggest winners may yet be those who bought the dip during the ‘market swoon’ of the last couple of weeks. This Weekly also discusses India’s sovereign upgrade, Zimbabwe’s coup, yet more financial reforms in China; a market-friendly candidate emerges as front-runner after the first round of Chile’s presidential election and President Mauricio Macri’s fiscal deal with provincial governments in Argentina. In the global backdrop we discuss the frightening possibility investors are wrongly looking for bubbles in specific sectors of the economy, when in fact the problem is macroeconomic in nature, i.e. all sectors are mispriced.

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