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The triple shock and EM equities: First-in first-out?

The Emerging View

02 April 2020

Global stock markets have been struck by a triple shock; global pandemic, energy price war and market rout from full valuation levels in developed markets. Each of these types of shocks has been seen, and recovered from, previously. The simultaneous nature of the events though is unprecedented and so too have been the speed and magnitude of market reactions. For those investors able to rationalise, identify fundamental ‘winners’ and manage their exposure actively, this market chapter may also prove to offer unprecedented investment opportunities. This paper provides context to recent market behaviour; assesses the trajectory of macroeconomic data; reviews current policy stance; and finishes with market implications. In brief, while Emerging Markets were the first to bear the pain of the triple shock, they also look well placed to be among the first to recover.

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