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A strong start to EM

Weekly investor research

14 January 2019

Update on the reasons for positive EM sentiment in the first couple of weeks of 2019. Argentina’s two main challenges and why they are likely to be overcome. The alleged illegitimacy of Nicholas Maduro’s presidency in the eyes of many weakens him. India will be larger than the US in just eleven years’ time on a PPP-adjusted GBP basis. Peru’s Attorney General is ousted. Falling inflation increases room for monetary stimulus in China, but will more monetary easing even be necessary? Egypt reforms energy prices. The World Bank presidency changes; will the World Bank now become more of a US policy instrument? In the global backdrop, Britain braces for Brexit, China and US talk trade and Powell urges patience and flexibility.

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