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On the road to Korean reunification

The Emerging View

12 June 2018

A solution to the Korean Conflict is about a quarter of a century overdue, but now there is movement. The outlook is naturally highly uncertain at this point. Still, we explain here what we imagine may happen in the coming months and years. Reunification of the two Koreas would be a logical consequence of a peace deal, in our view. This possibility should therefore now be given serious consideration. Reunification would require significant and sustained social and infrastructure investment in the North by the South. The return would take decades to materialise, but would ultimately favour Korea itself, while China would be the other major beneficiary, mainly via increased economic influence. US President would gain from being seen to strike a deal to help end the Korean conflict, but the US as a nation would lose political and military influence. If Korean reunification takes place Japan would also become more isolated as America’s last remaining ally in the region.

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