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Risk free (by definition only)

Weekly investor research

07 October 2013

Trade and current account balance data from a number of Emerging Markets showed material improvement over the past month. Meanwhile, the upturn in the global manufacturing cycle continued into September, according to new data released over the last week. Emerging Markets Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) appear to be lagging developed market PMIs by about a month, so we think the gentle tail wind from manufacturing will continue in October. Global risks continue to emanate from developed economies: Politicians in both the US and Italy last week held both their own countries and the global economy hostage to their narrow political objectives. The severe political tensions are a symptom of difficult economic and fiscal challenges in both regions. Developed market bonds are risk free, but only by definition.

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