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Weekly investor research

10 August 2015

The remaining downside risks in Brazil – downgrade from investment grade and presidential impeachment – moved a little closer last week. President Erdogan’s strategy of going to war to restore his parliamentary majority is working so far. Argentinean Economy Minister saves President Cristina’s blushes and opens the door for presidential candidate Daniel Scioli to move to the centre in politics by declaring that the holdout issue must be resolved. China’s Renminbi is set for SDR inclusion after technical hurdles are overcome. The economy picks up in Russia, Poland passes legislation to make banks pay for FX losses on mortgages and India’s Rajan re-iterates the need to open India’s bond markets. Malays produce a big trade surplus, Uruguay acts on inflation and President Buhari in Nigeria appoints an official. Nothing fundamentally changed in the global backdrop, which remains hostile to investor sentiment towards Emerging Markets (EM).

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