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Keep calm and carry on in China

Weekly investor research

06 March 2017

China signalled continuity at the National People’s Congress, including stable growth and inflation and a sustained commitment to reform. This should keep China on track to take over as the world’s undisputed economic leader over the next couple of decades. South Korea has become a mini-battleground between China and the US following the deployment of an anti-missile defence system to the country. Brazil racks up another enormous trade surplus, but we show that Brazil is by no means the only EM country to exhibit strong improvements in external balances in the last few years. MXN rallied strongly late last week on benign comments about US-Mexican relations from US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Turkey racked up double-digit inflation as the economy slows and India’s economy delivers far better growth than expected following demonetisation. In the global backdrop we note that the Fed has all but announced a March hike, which is now 96% priced in.

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