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Has Godot arrived in Mexico?
Weekly investor research
16 June 2014
Mexican data is slowly getting better, after a long wait. Turkey’s GDP number shows that the economy is adjusting sharply to
the rate hikes earlier this year. The US Supreme Court is set to rule early this week on the holdout case in Argentina. Santos’
re-election in Colombia is good news. China’s non-admission to the EM equity MSCI index is a non-event. Away from EM,
Carney buys credibility by announcing early, but likely extremely modest hikes. Conditions are also being put in place for a
return of expectations rather than wage-led inflation in the US, where household deleveraging resumed in Q1. Meanwhile, loss
of moral authority and economic weakness continue to make themselves felt in parts of the world where Western and other
interests clash – the latest example being Northern Iraq.