For more information please contact us

ashmail [at] ashmoregroup [dot] com (Email Ashmore)

Growth revisions suggest chronic over-estimation of EM risks

Weekly investor research

13 July 2015

The IMF made large downwards revisions to US growth, while maintaining its forecast for China to grow 6.8% this year. G7 currency volatility is now greater than Emerging Markets currency volatility – not a new thing, by the way. We put the volatility in the Chinese stock market into context. Turkey’s external balances are comfortable, but the outlook for TRY depends on other issues. Europe, the IMF and the ECB ask Greece to make draconian reforms in the coming weeks in exchange for staying in the Euro. This is a positive development for global sentiment but Greece is likely to remain in the headlines as the country rebuilds ‘trust’ by implementing a series of measures between now and September. In the US, recent trends in continuing claims and capacity utilisation give some grounds for concern.

Full article

Latest Insights

View all