For more information please contact us
ashmail [at] ashmoregroup [dot] com (Email Ashmore)
Growth revisions suggest chronic over-estimation of EM risks
Weekly investor research
13 July 2015
The IMF made large downwards revisions to US growth, while maintaining its forecast for China to grow 6.8% this year.
G7 currency volatility is now greater than Emerging Markets currency volatility – not a new thing, by the way. We put the
volatility in the Chinese stock market into context. Turkey’s external balances are comfortable, but the outlook for TRY
depends on other issues. Europe, the IMF and the ECB ask Greece to make draconian reforms in the coming weeks in
exchange for staying in the Euro. This is a positive development for global sentiment but Greece is likely to remain in the
headlines as the country rebuilds ‘trust’ by implementing a series of measures between now and September. In the US,
recent trends in continuing claims and capacity utilisation give some grounds for concern.