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Weekly investor research

09 September 2019

The inclusion of Chinese bonds in the GBI EM GD is the single most important development since the inception of the index. We explain why. The price action in EM bonds so far this year has been stellar, especially taking into account the many non-EM risks. Hong Kong moves towards a solution to the political impasse over extradition. The economic team of Alberto Fernandez of Argentina goes on a charm offensive. Lebanon is downgraded, but the news is positive, not negative.
Mugabe dies. Mexico presents the 2020 budget. Ukraine and Russia swap prisoners. South African GDP growth bounced strongly in Q2 2019. US payrolls disappoint and Democrats hint at impeachment proceedings. UK’s Brexit mess continues. US-China trade tensions ease somewhat.

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