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EM versus DM growth (2019-2023): How global is ‘global’ growth really?
The Emerging View
26 February 2019
IMF recently lowered its growth rate forecast for the global economy. We expect growth to command a premium as it becomes scarcer, while growth laggards will be penalised. It is therefore important to unpack IMF’s global growth forecast to determine who is growing and who is slowing. It turns out that slower ‘global’ growth is really a euphemism for slower developed market growth. Emerging Markets (EM) countries already contribute 74% of global growth and will contribute 84% by 2023. A lot of EM growth is concentrated in smaller economies, many of which barely feature on investors’ radar screens yet. Investors should therefore dramatically diversify their exposures across the EM universe, not just to protect against individual country risks, but also to generate better returns.