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EM and the US election

Weekly investor research

07 November 2016

Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, EM looks poised for continued outperformance due to improving absolute and relative fundamentals, higher yields and sound technicals. The short-term market dynamics may be different depending on who becomes the next US president, but we expect the winner to be inevitably and severely constrained both politically and economically. In Argentina, government policy shifts decisively from targeting economics to targeting politics as the 2017 mid-term election draws nearer. In Egypt, the government belatedly decides to swallow the IMF medicine. In addition to the snippets, the Weekly discusses former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers’ proposal to end Fed independence.

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