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Cold War echo
Weekly investor research
03 March 2014
Events in Ukraine are a reminder of just how damaging the Cold War was for Emerging Markets. The silver lining is that
superpower tensions are much less prevalent today and we think economic constraints make it unlikely that the problem
will spread beyond a few strategically misfortunate EM countries such as Egypt and Syria. Indeed, elsewhere the ‘Fragile
Five’ are gradually turning into the ‘Frugal Five’. We also discuss currency volatility in China and the situation in Venezuela.
The US data was better last week, but still consistent with an inventory correction rather than just bad weather. Europe’s
credit system remains highly ineffective although the Eurozone continues to grow slowly and steadily.