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Brazil Venezuela Kenya Chile Peru India Guatemala Russia

Weekly investor research

04 September 2017

Brazil returns to positive growth. There will be no major bond index implications from recent US sanctions against Venezuela. Kenya has to vote again as the Judiciary asserts itself. The resignation of two senior ministers bolsters Pinera’s chances in Chile. Ceviche just got dearer in Peru. Indian growth disappointed in Q2 2017, but high frequency indicators are already rebounding. Guatemala’s president on the ropes over corruption. South Korea looks to boost fiscal spending as the economy picks up. Russia’s central bank isolates Otkritie Bank and prevents any fallout to the wider economy. Meanwhile, in the risky part of the world low PCE inflation and softer than expected payrolls should ensure that US monetary policy normalisation remains very gentle. US President Donald Trump’s proposal to withdraw from a free trade agreement with South Korea seems poorly timed as tensions once again ratchet higher over North Korea. In Europe, Merkel and Macron look to deepen integration on fiscal matters as UK Brexit talks stall over the exit bill – we propose a simple way to deter countries from “doing a runner” when it comes to their obligations to the EU.

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