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The biggest risks in Brazil are now to the upside

Weekly investor research

07 March 2016

Recent political developments in Brazil have increased the odds that President Dilma Rousseff is impeached and that former President Lula will not run in 2018. Both are positive for sentiment towards Brazilian assets. China’s 2016 budget and economic program suggest that the government is confident about the direction of travel – and so are we. India is making significant inroads on PSU Banks. A major policy shift is underway in Argentina. Russia is harvesting the fruits of its prudent macroeconomic response to lower oil prices. In global markets, recent nonsense correlations are breaking in favour of something much more sensible and, incidentally, favourable for Emerging Markets (EM).

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