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Big elections coming up in Brazil and Ukraine

Weekly investor research

20 October 2014

Elections in Brazil and Ukraine are now less than a week away. The stark differences in the quality of policy-making across Emerging Markets (EM) is on sharp display as India exploits a fall in global oil prices to eradicate price controls, while Turkey embarks on second-stage heterodoxy with its ‘food committee’. Falling inflation in China allows the authorities to ‘liberalise’ interest rates without actually raising nominal rates. More talking heads join the cacophony of default predictors in Venezuela – the country’s economic conditions are challenging, but so would be the default option and we expect Venezuela to pay. Jokowi embarks upon his first day as president of Indonesia. Turning to the global backdrop, any fears of imminent rate hikes have receded somewhat, not that they were a material threat to EM in the first place.

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