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The 2019-2023 EM fixed income outlook

The Emerging View

06 December 2018

Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income should deliver compounded returns ranging from 30% to 60% in Dollar terms over the 2019-2023 investment horizon as markets revert to unwinding the so-called ‘Quantitative Easing (QE) trades’ after a temporary US election related interruption in 2018. As for 2019 returns, they may be marginally stronger than the five-year average due to the pullback in 2018. The main EM risks will be idiosyncratic, probably election-related. By far the largest risks to global finance over the next five years emanate from developed countries due to their overvalued markets, slowing economies, policy tightening and growing populism.

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