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Research

Research

13 June 2013

Weekly Investor Research

13 June 2013

The global economy remains extremely unsettled amidst continuing unwinding of crowded positions in US stocks, Japanese stocks, and USDJPY, while the continuing rhetoric is adding to the uncertainty. While tightening of monetary policy is still far away, credit markets have been hit hard by the ongoing uncertainty. We are now fully...

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Convergence, global imbalances and the role of infrastructure in EM

The Emerging View

June 2013

Many Emerging Markets are beginning to exhaust ‘low hanging’ sources of growth as they approach middle income status. Adapting requires not just greater economic flexibility, but also more investment and a more efficient use of capital. Infrastructure investment will play an important role within this process, alongside capital...

6 June 2013

Weekly Investor Research

06 June 2013

The on-going change in sentiment about US and Japanese markets is creating value in Emerging Markets

Market Commentary - June 2013

Market Commentary

05 June 2013

Brazil reduces the IOF tax to show the importance of preserving macro stability

30 May 2013

Weekly Investor Research

30 May 2013

Global market sentiment remains extremely volatile on account of continuing uncertainty surrounding the outlook for US monetary policy. Dollar bullishness and treasury market bearishness gave way to dollar weakness and a partial recovery in US treasuries later in the week. The reasons why the uncertain outlook for US monetary policy...

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23 May 2013

Weekly Investor Research

23 May 2013

The fragility of popular bull market trades in the HIDCs was exposed by Bernanke’s commitment to a more flexible approach to monetary policy in the United States. We believe that it will prove very difficult to unwind very easy policy in the HIDCs as long as debt levels remain at the current size.

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Disequilibrium and the Dollar

The Emerging View

May 2013

Yet another cyclical slowdown is a reminder that HIDCs (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries) have deep structural problems and that the world economy is in a state of deep disequilibrium.

16th May 2013

Weekly Investor Research

16 May 2013

The recent positive momentum in US stocks and USDJPY continued in the past week on hopes of continuing recovery in the US economy and successful escape for deflation in Japan. Supply-side data continued to disappoint, however. Speculation about phasing down of Quantitative Easing by the Fed helped to push US treasury yields close...

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9 May 2013

Weekly Investor Research

09 May 2013

The past two weeks has seen a significant discrepancy emerge between equity market valuations and the underlying trends in the data for the HIDCs (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries), notably the United States. However, without an obvious trigger for a correction in the market and with central banks continuing to signal willingness...

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2 May 2013

Weekly Investor Research

02 May 2013

The global economy is entering another manufacturing-led cyclical slowdown. These slowdowns are regular events triggered by shocks to final demand. They lead to temporary slowdowns in production and hiring as companies adjust their production levels to bring excess inventories back to levels consistent with observed demand. We do...

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The benefits of diversification into Emerging Markets Equities

The Emerging View

April 2013

In the 1980s, the term ‘Emerging Markets’ was first introduced to distinguish markets which were less developed than the US, Western Europe and Japan, but which were considered to be in the process of rapid growth and urbanisation. They were also considered more risky, as a result of limited foreign direct access, currency controls,...

25 April 2013

Weekly Investor Research

25 April 2013

Global-wide data releases over the past few weeks point to a manufacturing slowdown following two strong quarters. While the inventory adjustment-driven ups and down of the global manufacturing cycle do not change the underlying economic environment they can have a significant impact on sentiment and asset prices. As the data has...

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18 April 2013

Weekly Investor Research

18 April 2013

Global market sentiment continues to be highly erratic due to the uneasy co-existence of elevated asset prices in the HIDCs (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries) at a time of evident weakness in some economic data releases. Over the past week, commodity prices bore the brunt of this mismatch by shifting lower, though stock markets...

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11 April 2013

Weekly Investor Research

11 April 2013

All Emerging Markets asset classes rallied strongly. Economic weakness accompanied by verbal easing from HIDC central banks boosts sentiment.

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04 April 2013

Weekly Investor Research

04 April 2013

Japan expands monetary policy easing in a bid to restore growth via a weaker Yen as the pace of global growth slows.

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28 MARCH 2013

Weekly Investor Research

28 March 2013

Emerging Market equities performed well against a backdrop of softer US data, Cyprus problems, and Italian political noise.

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21 March 2013

Weekly Investor Research

21 March 2013

Cypriot crisis and weak European PMIs highlight the deep structural weaknesses in HIDCs. In our view, exposure to Emerging Markets is far safer.

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Price and Prejudice

The Emerging View

March 2013

The Emerging Market External Debt Renaissance is underway. Ashmore’s Dehn and Medeiros take a fresh look at the asset class

14 March 2013

Weekly Investor Research

14 March 2013

Improving fundamentals in Emerging Markets are overlooked by the market as momentum pushes USD and US stocks deeper into stretched territory.

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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

08 March 2013

7 March 2013

Weekly Investor Research

07 March 2013

Global market sentiment remained positive on the back of further promises of easy money from the US. Meanwhile, the UK government is moving towards further easing, including possibly further weakening of the Great British Pound. We believe this is the broad direction of travel for the HIDCs (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries)...

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28 February 2013

Weekly Investor Research

01 March 2013

The past week was characterised by severe bouts of volatility arising from actual and perceived risks in the HIDCs (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries). As in previous HIDC risk-off events, central banks in Europe and US were quick to step in with reassuring fresh money printing. Money printing helps as long as structural constraints...

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The Phony Currency Wars

The Emerging View

February 2013

Real or phony currency wars? We look at the facts and discuss the recent currency volatility.

21 February 2013

Weekly Investor Research

21 February 2013

Last week’s sharp market reaction to the Fed Minutes illustrates the extreme dependence on monetary stimulus in the HIDCs (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries)

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14 February 2013

Weekly Investor Research

14 February 2013

The rally in global markets is driven more by sentiment and positioning in HIDC currency markets than fundamental strength as the growth outlook in Europe and the United States remains very weak. As such, this is a reluctant and fragile rally and we believe investors should position to buy Emerging Markets into any weakness arising...

Read more 14 February 2013

07 February 2013

Weekly Investor Research

07 February 2013

Markets traded erratically due to perceived rising risks in the financial and political spheres of Europe as downside risks to currencies in HIDCs (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries) continue to become more evident.

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31 January 2013

Weekly Investor Research

31 January 2013

A sudden 20 basis points jump in treasury yields is creating some divergence in performance across asset classes. Equities have, for the most part, continued their march upwards and are out-performing credit. With global growth picking up and the most immediate policy risks (e.g. debt ceiling) being pushed back, the habitual ‘risk-on...

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Market Prospects 2013

Yearly View

24 January 2013

24 January 2013

Weekly Investor Research

24 January 2013

Emerging Markets growth is set to rise in 2013. Policy makers in the growth-challenged HIDCs (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries) are however becoming increasingly focused on currencies as the World Bank and the IMF predict another year of HIDC sub-par growth. Global sentiment improved marginally as the US Congress agrees to push...

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17 January 2013

Weekly Investor Research

24 January 2013

The clouds are gathering over global currency markets. So far we are only seeing minor skirmishes in a phony currency war. The outbreak of serious hostilities is further down the line. We believe it is the time to begin to accelerate the exit from HIDC (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries) bonds and currencies in favour of safer...

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10 January 2013

Weekly Investor Research

10 January 2013

Markets consolidated the current levels after the sparkle of the first week of the year. S&P500 is flat at 1,460 levels, 10yr UST inched up to 1.88%, Euro is flat at 1.31. Emerging Markets retraced a little from last week with Local Currency down -0.3%, Local Currency Bonds down -0.4% and External Debt down -0.3%, however, Corporate...

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3 January 2013

Weekly Investor Research

04 January 2013

The week was dominated by the ongoing debate in the US on the postponement of the fiscal cliff, which was due to trigger on 1 January 2013. Whilst a solution has not been reached, both parties agreed to push back the effective date to 1 March 2013, giving them time to reach an agreement. This news provided a strong boost in Global...

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20 December 2012

Weekly Investor Research

20 December 2012

Global market sentiment was choppy due to lingering uncertainty about the US fiscal cliff issue. Still, Emerging Markets sovereign debt produced small positive returns, despite a sell-off in US treasuries. Higher spread corporate high yield debt rallied more, up 44bps since Friday last week. Emerging Markets currencies also rose...

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2012: A Lesson in Value Investing

The Emerging View

December 2012

Convergence In The Time of Imbalances

The Emerging View

November 2012

29 November 2012

Weekly Investor Research

29 November 2012

The economic outlook continues to brighten globally, though asset markets continue to be beholden to fundamental weaknesses in Europe and the United States. In the past week, Greece was granted de facto debt relief on official sector debt—with resulting losses to European tax payers. The market then turned its attention back to...

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22 November 2012

Weekly Investor Research

22 November 2012

Happy Thanksgiving! Global market sentiment generally improved over the past week as news out of Europe and the US got slightly better at the margin. However, the HIDCs (Heavily Indebted Developed Countries) remain extremely vulnerable economically and face very tough challenges, so sentiment can quickly change again. Current drivers...

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15 November 2012

Weekly Investor Research

15 November 2012

Global market sentiment continued to be very volatile leading into the year-end on account of the ‘fiscal cliff’ issue in the United States, rising tensions in the Middle East due to the situation in Syria, and slow progress in Europe in dealing with Greece and Spain. The problems in the HIDCs generated collateral volatility...

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8 November 2012

Weekly Investor Research

08 November 2012

Emerging market bonds and equities both rallied over the week and currencies were flat to slightly down against the US Dollar. Markets in general have been choppy, with profit taking before year end, a bearish element in US markets, Hurricane Sandy and US election and fiscal cliff. HIDC data has been positive recently, but deleveraging continues....

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Blended Debt: Enhance Returns and Reduce Risk

The Emerging View

October 2012

Bernanke Signals Dollar Weakness Ahead

The Emerging View

September 2012

Phoney Currency Wars

The Emerging View

August 2012

Liabilities & Purchasing Power

The Emerging View

July 2012

Passive

The Emerging View

June 2012

The Great Flight From Liabilities

The Emerging View

May 2012

How to Lose Money Without Really Trying

The Emerging View

April 2012

Benchmarks: Lessons not learnt

The Emerging View

March 2012

The Ugly Duckling Grows Up

The Emerging View

February 2012

Prejudice, Value and Opportunity

The Emerging View

January 2012

Market Prospects 2012

Yearly View

18 January 2012

Engage that First Bullet now

Market Commentary

29 September 2011